Data were collected from Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare of Japan, updated on February 16, 2020.

University of Michigan - Ann Arbor

- Definitions
- Data Source
- Model development and statistical analysis

Methods of Estimation of the reproductive number of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) and the probable outbreak size on the Diamond Princess cruise ship: A data-driven analysis

Zhang, S., Diao, M., Yu, W., Pei, L., Lin, Z., & Chen, D. (2020). Estimation of the reproductive number of Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) and the probable outbreak size on the Diamond Princess cruise ship: A data-driven analysis. International Journal of Infectious Diseases, 93, 201-204.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijid.2020.02.033
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1201971220300916

Estimation of the reproductive number of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) and the probable outbreak size on the Diamond Princess cruise ship: A data-driven analysis

Confirmed cases of COVID-19 infection are defined by a positive viral nucleic acid test. Suspected cases are individuals with COVID-19 symptoms that have not been confirmed by viral nucleic acid testing.

Definitions of Estimation of the reproductive number of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) and the probable outbreak size on the Diamond Princess cruise ship: A data-driven analysis

Investigators used serial interval with a mean of 7.5 days and fit it with gamma distribution to estimate R0 at the beginning of the outbreak. They used bootstrap strategy to resample 1000 times to generate R0 distribution estimates. They projected plausible epidemic trajectories by looking at daily incidence, serial interval distribution, and R0. They also plotted cumulative incidence range for the upcoming 10 days.

Model Development and Statistical Analysis of Estimation of the reproductive number of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) and the probable outbreak size on the Diamond Princess cruise ship: A data-driven analysis

Data Source of Estimation of the reproductive number of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) and the probable outbreak size on the Diamond Princess cruise ship: A data-driven analysis

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