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  • Dual Drivers of Persistent Inflation: Bargaining Gap and Expected Inflation

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In an economy where unemployment is persistently below the inflation-stabilizing rate, the resulting positive bargaining gap is, by itself, sufficient to cause inflation to increase year after year.

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Updated 2025-10-08

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  • Analyzing an Inflationary Spiral

  • An economy experiences a sustained period where the unemployment rate is held consistently below the level that would normally keep inflation constant. If workers and firms form their expectations about future inflation based on the inflation rate of the previous period, what is the most likely outcome for the inflation rate over several consecutive periods?

  • An economy starts at its inflation-stabilizing unemployment rate. A government stimulus then causes unemployment to fall and remain below this rate for several periods. Arrange the following events to show the causal chain that leads to continuously rising inflation, assuming expectations are based on the previous period's inflation.

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